Introduction
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Today’s topic differs from previous issues. Past newsletters analyzed completed 【Decision and Positioning】 cases, but this issue will analyze an ongoing 【Decision】 process. Which type do you prefer? Let me know—this will greatly influence the direction of future newsletters!
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Plaintiff: Elon Musk (Hereinafter “Plaintiff”) Alleges Based on Information and Belief
The lawsuit details how, in 2015, Elon Musk decided to partner with Sam Altman to establish a “non-profit AI organization to make technology accessible to the world,” reasoning that preventing AI development was impossible, and if development was inevitable, a non-profit should lead it. Sam Altman proposed developing AI to empower individuals, stating, “This technology will be owned by the foundation and used for the good of the world.”
Musk agreed to fund this initiative, and in 2015, OpenAI was founded as a non-profit. Its charter stated a specific purpose: “The company will strive to open-source its technology for public benefit at the appropriate time. The company is not organized for private profit.”
From 2015 onward, Musk leveraged his tech industry network and reputation to recruit top talent for OpenAI, telling Sam Altman to offer better conditions to “secure top talent at all costs.” Between 2016 and September 2020, Musk donated over $44 million (approximately NT$1.3 billion) to fund OpenAI’s AI projects.
Since its inception, OpenAI focused on open-sourcing and publishing research. When it released GPT-3 in 2020, it also published a research paper detailing the full implementation for community use and announced model development. That same year, OpenAI established a for-profit subsidiary.
However, in April 2023, OpenAI’s new model, GPT-4, achieved significant progress, but OpenAI did not release related papers or code. The model’s internal details remain known only to OpenAI. Musk suspects OpenAI also shared this information with Microsoft.
Sam Altman’s Response
As of the newsletter’s completion, Sam Altman has not issued a formal response to Musk’s lawsuit. He has only posted an old article on X in reply.
Will Musk Win?
Several law professors have commented on the lawsuit, noting that Musk’s filing lacks specific contracts, making it difficult to prove any agreement with Sam Altman. Additionally, OpenAI’s charter language about open-sourcing is vague—“strive to open-source at the appropriate time” rather than an obligation—leading some professors to consider the case challenging.
However, judging the winner or loser based solely on the filing is premature. Musk’s lawyers are unlikely to reveal all their strategies, including detailed evidence or other materials, at this early stage.
What Can Musk Gain from This Decision?
1. Shifting Public Opinion to Support Musk and Slowing OpenAI’s Development
Last November, OpenAI’s co-founder Sam Altman was ousted by the company’s board, only to be invited days later by OpenAI’s major investor, Microsoft, to lead its innovation lab. Simultaneously, OpenAI employees publicly expressed willingness to follow Altman to Microsoft, after which OpenAI re-invited him back as CEO.
This shifted public opinion to favor Altman, suggesting AI development hinges on his leadership.
Before this, however, the narrative leaned toward Altman and OpenAI overdeveloping AI without adequate regulation, with potential harms outweighing benefits. Altman faced frequent questions about AI regulation, supporting it yet fearing overregulation, casting doubt on his stance.
Musk’s lawsuit, though presenting facts one-sidedly and portraying him as a concerned intellectual, significantly boosts his image and elevates the importance of AI regulation.
2. Potentially Slowing AI Development
OpenAI previously released a text-to-video model showcasing strong video generation capabilities, creating nearly realistic short clips (e.g., Tokyo streets with cherry blossoms and dynamic camera angles) based on prompts. Due to its power, OpenAI has not opened it to the public, limiting it to developer testing and planning to embed metadata in AI-generated videos for platforms like YouTube and Facebook to identify them.
This marks the first slowdown in AI development.
Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI could distract OpenAI and Altman with legal proceedings, slowing AI progress, while also raising public awareness of the need for AI regulation, further delaying advancement.
3. U.S. Civil Litigation Discovery Process
The U.S. civil litigation process emphasizes presenting all facts in court through a discovery phase, allowing both parties to request documents and information. If this phase is reached, numerous private conversations, contracts, and other materials will be disclosed. Musk (and possibly the public) could gain access to OpenAI’s confidential internal information from 2015 to now, potentially including details of past internal conflicts.
Decisions to Watch
- Will Musk Choose to Settle?
The U.S. discovery process is powerful, often leading companies to settle with money to avoid disclosing confidential information. However, if OpenAI offers a large settlement to Musk, will he accept? As one of the world’s top three richest individuals, money may not be his primary motivation. - Will Musk Take Action Regarding His Company xAI?
Some suspect Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI is strategic, given his company xAI is developing advanced AI. Could this be an attempt to distract a competitor, force OpenAI to open-source code, or weaken it? Whether or not, Musk’s decisions regarding xAI’s plans are worth watching. - Will Microsoft Make a Move?
OpenAI’s shift from open to closed was heavily influenced by Microsoft’s billion-dollar investment, aiming to exclusively control the GPT-4 model and profit from OpenAI’s sales. Will Microsoft act to protect its investment, or do nothing? - Will OpenAI Return to Openness?
This is the ultimate question. With a lawsuit outcome likely far in the future, the result remains uncertain…
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Source: https://hungkaichuang.com/decision-and-positioning015-elon-musk-sues-openai-and-sam-altman/